The week was eventful. Let’s start with economic dates. Friday saw the release of US unemployment data – 3.8%, with expectations of 3.5%. The labor market is starting to really cool down. The markets took this news with cautious optimism. There is a possibility that the Fed will stop raising the rate after all. And if the dynamics of increasing unemployment continues, the regulator will move to easing monetary policy.
🟢 The cryptocurrency market was volatile. After news of Grayscale’s partial victory against the SEC, the cryptocurrency market rallied sharply, liquidating $130 million in short positions. But a few days later, the SEC delayed its decision on the BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco, and Valkyrie spot ETFs until at least October 17. The market reacted to this with a substantial drop. As a result, the crypto market capitalization fell by 11% in August. Despite the rather volatile week, the 30, 60, and 90-day volatility of cryptocurrencies remains at low levels. Major movements are still to come.
As a reminder, 80% of the time in its history, the crypto market has fallen in September. It is worth being careful with short-term long trades.
🟢 The stock market, unlike the cryptocurrency market, has grown. The S&P 500 rose by more than 2.5% and the Nasdaq by just under 4%. It was a great week for stocks. However, the global problems in the economy didn’t go anywhere.
🔴 Historically, September is the best-performing month for the U.S. dollar. But for stocks and cryptocurrencies, it is one of the worst. For this reason, opening longs for the medium term is still not recommended. If key supports are broken, there will be noticeable liquidations and sharp movements in the markets of high-risk assets, which will spur the volatility index to growth.
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